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  "Title": "Bayesian Error Propagation and Forecast Uncertainty\nDecomposition",
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  "Authors@R": "c(\nperson(given = \"Luis Javier\", family = \"Madrigal-Roca\", role = c(\"aut\", \"cre\"), email = \"madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com\"),\nperson(given = \"John\", family = \"Kelly\", role = \"aut\", email = \"jkk@ku.edu\")\n)",
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    "et_theme",
    "extract_priors",
    "shelf_life",
    "standardize",
    "unstandardize"
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    {
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      "title": "Diagnose a fitted ErrorTracer model",
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      ]
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      "page": "et_fit",
      "title": "Fit a Bayesian regression model with informed priors",
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        "et_fit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_calibration",
      "title": "Plot calibration: observed vs nominal coverage",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_calibration"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_coefficients",
      "title": "Forest plot of regression coefficients",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_coefficients"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_decomposition",
      "title": "Plot uncertainty decomposition",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_decomposition"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_forecast",
      "title": "Plot posterior predictive fan chart",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_forecast"
      ]
    },
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      "page": "et_plot_prior_posterior",
      "title": "Plot prior vs posterior distributions for model coefficients",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_prior_posterior"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_sensitivity",
      "title": "Plot a sensitivity profile",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_sensitivity"
      ]
    },
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      "page": "et_plot_shelf_life",
      "title": "Plot forecast shelf life",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_shelf_life"
      ]
    },
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      "page": "et_predict",
      "title": "Posterior prediction with uncertainty decomposition",
      "topics": [
        "et_predict"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_sensitivity_profile",
      "title": "Sensitivity profile of the environmental uncertainty component",
      "topics": [
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      ]
    },
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      "title": "Simulated allele-frequency-change dataset for ErrorTracer tutorials",
      "topics": [
        "et_sim"
      ]
    },
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      "title": "Minimal ggplot2 theme for ErrorTracer plots",
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      ]
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      "topics": [
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        "extract_priors.cv.glmnet",
        "extract_priors.glm",
        "extract_priors.glmnet",
        "extract_priors.lm",
        "extract_priors.ranger"
      ]
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      "title": "Compute the forecast shelf life",
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        "shelf_life"
      ]
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      "title": "Standardize a numeric vector (mean-centre, unit-variance)",
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        "Setup: simulate one predictor, one response — over years",
        "Stage 1: turn a quick frequentist fit into a prior",
        "Stage 2: Bayesian refit with the informed prior",
        "Stage 3: posterior prediction across the forecast horizon",
        "Stage 4: decompose the variance over time",
        "Stage 5: when does the forecast become uninformative?",
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        "Step 2 — Extract informed priors",
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